Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Deutsche Bank: Capital Raise - Best Practise?

Today Deutsche Bank surprisingly announced a capital raise of 2.8 billion EUR together with better than expected Q1 results.
The media as well as investors (+ 6% today) reacted very positive towards those plans and the earnings.

I believe that it was very well done by Fitschen/Jain:
What did Deutsche Bank do: Outstanding shares are 929 mn, new shares of 90 mn will be issued to institutional investors. They stay closely under 10% increase in share count. This enables them to not offer subscription rights to all existing shareholders.

  • Existing shareholders suffer a dilution of 10% without rights issue.
They executed the sell of the new stocks on this Tuesday. Stock is now at almost 35 EUR/share after positive results.  However the selling price of the new stocks was 32.90 EUR, that is a discount of 2,1 EUR or 6%.
  • New shares were sold at a discount exclusively to institutional investors.
To conclude: The share issuance was well and swift done to the disadvantage of small/"retail" shareholders, yet they do not seem to realize.

Only a  low than 10% capital increase could have been announced and executed in such a fast manner - it took only 1 day.
Why this haste - maybe because the Q1 results are not so good after all. Provisions, anyone?

Update: According to this article Deutsche Bank received 2.96 bn new capital from 90 mn shares.
So that makes 32.88 EUR/share, not the 31.11 EUR they originally planned with.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Analyst Recommendation and Stock Performance: Performance Feb+Mar (Pt. 07)

After a long holiday, i finally come up with the seventh part of my little "field study" about the meaningfulness of (sell-side!) analysts recommendations.

The situation of the two portfolios changed quite a bit.
In February and March the Best-Portfolio together with DJ-Index clearly outrun the Worst-Basket. In general there seems to be a strong correlation between the DJ-Index and the Best-Basket. Indeed  US-American stocks are prevailing in the best basket, the worst-basket seems is more European influenced.

Despite the improved performance of the Best-basket during the latest two month, the Worst-Basket is still stronger.
The Worst-Basket really took a big hit in February.
It seems important to notice, that the standard deviation of the Worst-Basket is much higher, for me a evidence of the importance of diversification among the worst-rated securities.