This is the link to Ackman's research on possible multi-channel pyramid fraud at Herbalife. 300+ pages.
Will be extremly interesting to see how this develops, i think he has a very strong page. Really good research, must have taken months over months.
Interesting enought that this company got away so long with this, should the accusations be true.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Discussion about gun regulations: Picture from a pressure group
This morning i found the following picture being shared from a (Mexican) friend of mine on facebook:
I didnt respond to him via facebook, since regarding recent events there a lot of heat on this topic. Furthermore gun regulation always seems to be a very sensitive issue.
Assuming this number of deaths by firearms is correct, the figures by themselves are quite meaningless, since the do not relate to f.e. the number of inhabitants.
So i took the freedom to do this:
Indeed a statistical relation between access to guns and death by guns seem to exist.
This of course makes sense, since death by other means are not regarded in here.
Also huge differences between f.e. SW1 (Switzerland) and the US seem to occur, although both enjoy quite lax regulation on guns. In SW1 every man finished with mandatory army service keeps his assault rifle (SIG SG 550/552) together with a package of 50* .223 bullets. Furthermore he can buy the handgun he served with at a well reduced price.
For me it is clear that gun regulations are only of minor importance for such extremely sad and senseless happenings as this week in Connecticut.
Assuming this number of deaths by firearms is correct, the figures by themselves are quite meaningless, since the do not relate to f.e. the number of inhabitants.
So i took the freedom to do this:
Indeed a statistical relation between access to guns and death by guns seem to exist.
This of course makes sense, since death by other means are not regarded in here.
Also huge differences between f.e. SW1 (Switzerland) and the US seem to occur, although both enjoy quite lax regulation on guns. In SW1 every man finished with mandatory army service keeps his assault rifle (SIG SG 550/552) together with a package of 50* .223 bullets. Furthermore he can buy the handgun he served with at a well reduced price.
For me it is clear that gun regulations are only of minor importance for such extremely sad and senseless happenings as this week in Connecticut.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
BMW Preferred Shares: 3rd Update
Updated the database again, seems like the spread is stabilizing at around 45% discount.
This is the whole time line since 2003 until now:
And here the changes since the last update:
Since October we can see a upwards trend in the common stock. It seems like the pref are adjusting slower as we can observe slightly rising spreads.
See also my initial post and the 2 following updates: Nr. 1 and Nr. 2 of my little study.
This is the whole time line since 2003 until now:
And here the changes since the last update:
See also my initial post and the 2 following updates: Nr. 1 and Nr. 2 of my little study.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Deloitte advertisting: Asian Bamboo and Chinese - German IPOs
Recently i stumbled across this German advertising document by Deloitte. It is about German holding companies with operations only in China that IPO on the German stock market.
It is in German, so I will translate the interesting parts.
At first I thought it must be an old brochure, however its from October 2012.
Lets see the interesting parts:
It is about the company Asian Bamboo (AB), which engages in bamboo forestation. The text describes AB as "showpiece security regarding financial development, public relations as well as share performance."
Since I know AB a little, I thought this is a joke.
Here is the chart regarding the stock and and extract of the earnings per share
Regarding public relations: Deloitte took over the mandate from BDO 2010. Shortly after that they had to change the method of accounting for rented bamboo forests (before they activated the whole DCF they expected over all 20 years of leasing- through net income of course).
So not the best example to advertise with in my opinion, which leads us to the question: Are there better alternatives to showcase?
Median performance is -57,6%, arithm. middle -46,4%. Except Ultrasonic and Firsttextile there is no positive performance, both have a short track record.
Firsttextile offered 4 Mio shares at range 10-14 EUR, sized down to 1,8 Mio shares sold at 10 EUR.
So situation is pretty bad, there is a lot of resentment towards Chinese stocks in the German market.
In the text from Deloitte above the last sentence about what makes Germany a good place to IPO is also interesting: "The expected good enterprise valuation together with relatively little requirements regarding the listing made the German location attractive"
Stupid German money meets little regulatory oversight....
At least the stupid money part should be gone now, although there are still some China shops trying to go public here the "success" speaks for itself (see above).
So the days of big business are over - sorry Deloitte Chinese Service Group.
It is in German, so I will translate the interesting parts.
At first I thought it must be an old brochure, however its from October 2012.
Lets see the interesting parts:
It is about the company Asian Bamboo (AB), which engages in bamboo forestation. The text describes AB as "showpiece security regarding financial development, public relations as well as share performance."
Since I know AB a little, I thought this is a joke.
Here is the chart regarding the stock and and extract of the earnings per share
Regarding public relations: Deloitte took over the mandate from BDO 2010. Shortly after that they had to change the method of accounting for rented bamboo forests (before they activated the whole DCF they expected over all 20 years of leasing- through net income of course).
So not the best example to advertise with in my opinion, which leads us to the question: Are there better alternatives to showcase?
| Industry | IPO date | Performance since IPO | Volume Mio EUR | |
| FIRSTEXTILE AG | Textilindu.. | 12.11.2012 | 2,00% | 1,8 |
| FAST CASUALWEAR AG | Bekleidung.. | 09.07.2012 | -57,60% | 5,3251 |
| GOLDROOSTER AG | Bekleidung.. | 18.05.2012 | -54,63% | 23 |
| HAIKUI SEAFOOD AG | Nahrungsmi.. | 15.05.2012 | -28,00% | 2,76 |
| ULTRASONIC AG | Bekleidung.. | 09.12.2011 | 16,67% | 6,3 |
| YOUBISHENG GREEN PAPER AG | Papierindu.. | 13.07.2011 | -19,39% | 1,4151 |
| CHINA SPECIALTY GLASS AG | Baumateria.. | 01.07.2011 | -68,90% | 23,85 |
| UNITED POWER TECHNOLOGY.. | Maschinenbau | 10.06.2011 | -58,24% | 51,75 |
| POWERLAND AG | Sonstige B.. | 11.04.2011 | -59,09% | 94,875 |
| KINGHERO AG | Textilindu.. | 06.08.2010 | -34,87% | |
| JOYOU AG | Möbel und .. | 30.03.2010 | -38,62% | 91 |
| VTION WIRELESS TECHNOLO.. | Telekommun.. | 01.10.2009 | -60,55% | |
| GREATER CHINA PRECISION.. | Telekommun.. | 20.11.2007 | -72,90% | 28,5 |
| ASIAN BAMBOO AG | Holzindust.. | 16.11.2007 | -67,34% | 82,586 |
| ZHONGDE WASTE TECHNOLOG.. | Entsorgung.. | 06.07.2007 | -94,17% | 94,6234 |
Median performance is -57,6%, arithm. middle -46,4%. Except Ultrasonic and Firsttextile there is no positive performance, both have a short track record.
Firsttextile offered 4 Mio shares at range 10-14 EUR, sized down to 1,8 Mio shares sold at 10 EUR.
So situation is pretty bad, there is a lot of resentment towards Chinese stocks in the German market.
In the text from Deloitte above the last sentence about what makes Germany a good place to IPO is also interesting: "The expected good enterprise valuation together with relatively little requirements regarding the listing made the German location attractive"
Stupid German money meets little regulatory oversight....
At least the stupid money part should be gone now, although there are still some China shops trying to go public here the "success" speaks for itself (see above).
So the days of big business are over - sorry Deloitte Chinese Service Group.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Analyst Recommendation and Stock Performance: Performance Nov (Pt. 04)
Welcome to part 4 of the series, this time with graphics!
This is the November performance month-to-month (mtm):
Overall performance since setup (August-Nov):
This is the November performance month-to-month (mtm):
- Total Best 12 Basket 374,61 0,7% 377,28
- Total Worst 12 Basket 353,75 -0,6% 343,55
- DAX 30 Perf Index 7335,67 1,0% 7405,5
- Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (Price) (USD) 13232,62 -1,6% 13025,04
Overall performance since setup (August-Nov):
- Total Best 12 Basket 3,4%
- Total Worst 12 Basket 6,7%
- DAX 30 Perf Index 9,6%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (Price) (USD) 1,1%
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