Monday, July 23, 2012

Historical Successful/Failed German IPOs last 3/5years - IPO Discount

I analysed the last 5 years of IPOs in Germany and there performance.
I screen every initial public offering in a German market since 2007.
It does not look very good for the IPO buyers, especially on the long term (3 years plus). Traditionaly people speak of an IPO discount of 15-30% given on the intrisic value to motivate investors to buy into IPOs.
However this data shows that more the opposite is true, an IPO premium of at least 15%.
Now maybe the German market is just really bad for IPO-investors. As my data shows there were only a total of 14 IPOs above a 0% performance, only 5 of them from 2008 and 2007.
In my opinon that is a pretty devastating account.

The 3 latest  years (2012-2009)
3 yr Median:                      -12,37%
3 yr Arith. Middle:            -15,60%
3 yr Variance:                     29,35%
3 yr Nr. IPOs:                     31
This is year 4 and 5, or 2008 and 2007, which shows the worst performance, probably since it includes all the IPOs from boom year 2007 where a lot of junk went public:
4 yr - 5 yr Median:           -63,64%
4 yr - 5 yr Arith. Middle: -49,51%
4 yr - 5 yr Variance:          39,97%
4 yr - 5 yr Nr. IPOs:          49
Here the total time span of 5 years:
5 yr Median:                     -52,58%
5 yr Arith. Middle:           -36,37%
5 yr Variance:                    38,58%
5 yr Nr. IPOs:                    80

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Free tools for stock screening/look-up/news

Here I want to list some of my favorite tools that i use frequently when assessing/monitoring one stock or a portfolio of stocks. All are free of charge:

Stock screener:
Yahoo Stock Screener: Over 150 different criteria you can combine when screening. Works best for US stocks.
Google Stock Screener: Features a lot of different criteria, maybe a bit less then Yahoo. More graphical interface. As well only US stocks.
For a how-to-screen see Damodarans excellent guide, who also recommends screening tools.

Quotes, (Financial-) Information, Ratios of specific company:
Yahoo Finance: Works quite well for a lot of companies, however most information is available for US stocks and larger European caps.
FT marketsdata: Works well for a lot of companies, very graphic interface. Gives you a lot of information, including institutional investors, background CEO/etc. Has data for 3 annual periods.
MSN Money: Only for stocks from most important markets: US/CAN/GER/FRA/SP/BE/IT/JAP/SW/NL/UK. Features besides the usual stuff a 10 year summary!

News aggregator:
Finanznachrichten.de: After creating an account you can define your personal watch list of stocks and news from 430 international publications. If wished you can also have an Email being send to you at given day and hour with all the relevant news. However most content is in German! Also shows real-time quotes.

Monday, July 9, 2012

Recipe for chewy cookies

This is a very simple, easy-to-do recipe for cookies (american style).

Yesterday my girlfriend gave me a cookie as a present. Since the cookie was very good, I decided the check for recipes.
After some search I found a simple one, and since the results were very convincing (yummy), I wanted to share it:

Time of preparation: 20 Min
Time of backing: ~10 Min

250g butter/margarine, warm
2 eggs
250g sugar
1 pack vanilla-sugar
tiny bit of salt

a)Take big bowl. Mix everything in given order and stir well.

b) Here comes the creative part: Add chocolate/cherries/nuts/whatever to a)

400g flour
1 pack backing powder

c) Mix both ingredients, then slowly blend with the other mass.

d) Use two spoons, form little balls onto a sheet. Dont forget that they will go up during backing, give them some space. Dough should be enough for at least two sheets!
Heat oven to 180°C, then back for around 10 Min, at least until they get brown on the sides.
Backing time depends on degree of wished chewiness, the longer, the more hard and less chewy.
Take out, place on grid to cool off!

e) Eat!

Update 1: Here is a picture of mine. As you can see some of the dough ran down on the sides of one sheet.