Sunday, August 2, 2020

Historical increase of prices in food within the last 10 years

Frequently now after going shopping in the post-COVID19 times I am under the impression that shopping groceries has gotten more expensive.
Our official gvmtl. statistics basically say 6% price increase for a total of 5 years making 0.83% yearly price increase.


In order to verify this I have compiled prices for a couple of articles, mainly using https://www.discounter-preisvergleich.de as a source of reference for historical prices.
Products always relate to the cheap private label (store) brand at ALDI. Together with LIDL, ALDI frequently acts are point of reference for all other discounters.
These are the results:

Description of product Years available Price increase p.a.
Rapeseed cooking oil 12.3 1.34%
Gouda middle ages in one piece 13.1 0.66%
Free range eggs, 10 pcs 15.7 7.98%
Basmati rice, 1 kg 10.8 1.04%
Whole grain pasta, 500g 11.4 -0.44%
Beer 6x 0.5L 11.4 0.52%
Tuna own juice 14.9 4.85%
Fresh whole milk 3.5% 11.4 1.13%
Olives in a jar 9.4 0.00%
Peanuts 200G 12.9 4.75%
Low-fat yogurt 500G 14.3 1.80%
Fresh organic / milk 1.5% 7.2 1.57%
Average 13.2 2.29%

An average yearly increase of 2.3% during the last 13 years, which is definitely above the official 0.83% for the last 5 years. The Corona effect is however only included in the Olives/Peanuts/Yogurt/1.5% milk dataset, since I had only for these 5 products prices available dating past March 2020. However even for those produce, price movement post COVID is little to none.

What I did not get the chance to validate and where I think biggest price jumps should be are fresh produce. During my search I could not discover a valid source of historical data which is available online.  

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