The Bank of America released a survey indicating that institutional US investors reallocate their money from government bonds to equities.
This is the first step on the reversion towards a more "normal" interest level. Investors expect interest rates to rise and abandon (fixed rate) bonds so they don't get stuck with the low interest coupons. They rush into equities as alternative assets.
When bond interest levels have gone up according to investors expectation the move will reverse. Now bonds will get more popular again until a balance is established.
Of course FED's actions will have a strong influence:
a) FED does nothing or FED slowly decreases asset purchases: Scenario as above
b) FED decides to stop purchases faster then assumed: More rapid and stronger rush to equity.
c) FED decides to increase asset purchases: Increased popularity of bonds, since interest levels might decline even further in the future.
In my opinion alternative a) seems to be the most likely outcome, since this also includes a vague statement without a decision about future actions.
For Europe the situation is entirely different. The ECB seems willing to escalate the situation in order to force banks into lending more money. Yet the EUR is getting stronger, investors seem to doubt the willingness or ability of ECB to further cut interest rates.
Edit1: Aswath Damodaran posted a very interesting research opionion on the power of the FED and the perception of it by investors. Highly recommended as always!
Edit2: Harald Preißler Chief-Economist of Bantleon (investment bank) seems to have the same opinion: Handelsblatt (German only)
Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bonds. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Mid-tier bonds ("Mittelstandsanleihen") in Germany
In the prevailing low interest environment in German so called Mittelstandsanleihen are being increasingly offered. Those are bonds my small/mid-tier companies, often with a well recognized name and good reputation for a narrow industry niche.
The bond volume is usually max. 60 million EUR with a coupon of 6%-8% p.a. In fact all the bonds I could have purchased since September 2012 were Mittelstandsanleihen.
I strongly discourage anyone to invest into those bonds, chances are high that at least some of the money will go for good.
The companies usually lack equity capitalization and due to the new „Gesetz zur weiteren Erleichterung der Sanierung von Unternehmen“ (ESUG) a debt to equity swap and a higher haircut for bondholders is easier for companies to enforce. Management now has 3 months time for putting a plan together, they can also group stakeholders into different pools. The plan is accepted if the majority of pools accept it. Accordingly management has a strong incentive to balance the groups in a way that they split the votes of people that are likely to oppose the plan (such as bondholders).
For German readers i recommend this very interesting article on WiWo.
However in my opinion the prime of Mittelstandsanleihen has passed, they are under a lot of scrutiny by the media, especially by financial press. A quick internet search will find loads of bad publicity.
I receive a daily newsletter Finance Today by German paper Handelsblatt. For one whole week the newsletter featured a flashy ad for such a Mittelstandsanleihe by Gamigo.
That made me wondering if the will also feature the negative articles about the SME bonds they published online/in print in their newsletter.
Well they did (good!):
The bond volume is usually max. 60 million EUR with a coupon of 6%-8% p.a. In fact all the bonds I could have purchased since September 2012 were Mittelstandsanleihen.
I strongly discourage anyone to invest into those bonds, chances are high that at least some of the money will go for good.
The companies usually lack equity capitalization and due to the new „Gesetz zur weiteren Erleichterung der Sanierung von Unternehmen“ (ESUG) a debt to equity swap and a higher haircut for bondholders is easier for companies to enforce. Management now has 3 months time for putting a plan together, they can also group stakeholders into different pools. The plan is accepted if the majority of pools accept it. Accordingly management has a strong incentive to balance the groups in a way that they split the votes of people that are likely to oppose the plan (such as bondholders).
For German readers i recommend this very interesting article on WiWo.
However in my opinion the prime of Mittelstandsanleihen has passed, they are under a lot of scrutiny by the media, especially by financial press. A quick internet search will find loads of bad publicity.
I receive a daily newsletter Finance Today by German paper Handelsblatt. For one whole week the newsletter featured a flashy ad for such a Mittelstandsanleihe by Gamigo.
That made me wondering if the will also feature the negative articles about the SME bonds they published online/in print in their newsletter.
Well they did (good!):
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