Will Russia invade Ukraine

 Since autumn 2021 Russia again started a massive troop build-up near the border of Ukraine, deploying a troop of +100k, plus equipment. Talks between US and Russia hit dead end beginning of this week. 

As usual if in doubt it makes sense to create a little list of what speaks for (pro) or against (contra) a certain scenario (here: The invasion). I quickly want to mention that I do not possess additional sources beyond conventional mass media and any other insights, just an interested observer.

Pro:

• Russian troop movements includes auxiliary troops such as medial and logistic units for sustained operations, as well as offensive weaponry such as rocket launchers, helicopters. Massive cyber attacks on websites of the Ukraine government have already been initiated.
• It appears that via negotiations Russia will not win any concessions, given talks have failed.
• Ukraine is not yet part of any formal defence treaty/organization. They did give up all their nuclear arsenal over which they had physical although operational control remained with Russia. I do not see the US (or the EU, even if they would be able) openly providing armed support to repel an invasion. Maximum they would do is to tighten sanctions, which leads us to the next points. 
• Natural Gas (NG) storage at very low levels providing significant leverage to Russia especially should the winter become severe. See the following scenarios from the embedded article: 
  
  At the same time electric supply, which might compensate some NG demand, is very strained. Additional demand (industrial nature, but also electric vehicles, heat pumps) and the transition to more environmental electric production (Germany shut down 3 of 6 nuclear on 31 Dec 2021, in addition to coal fired plants) leaves grids very unstable with ever increasing risks of blackouts. I doubt the increased import of US LNG can compensate Russian supply.
• Supply chains, transportation for virtually all goods disrupted, prices for all raw materials severely increased, strong inflationary tendencies. Will reduce focus and resources of the West away from opening another conflict. On the same time might increase benefits for Russia by conquering Ukraine, which mainly exports grains, metal and vegetable oil. Many of the metallurgic companies are headquartered in Donetsk, already under control of Russia/Separatists.
• Russia turning towards China as buyer for its products, mirroring the US's 'pivot to Asia'. This reduces potential impacts of sanctions by US/Europe. I am certain China does not care about Ukraine as long as the buying terms are economically favourable.  
• Western societies (US, EU) heavily divided by COV19 and approach to counter COV19 (esp mandatory vaccinations). Most European countries have seen manifestations against lockdown and vaccinations, with people being frustrated, frightened after 2 years. Several of the armed forces (such as the US) have introduced vaccination mandates for their personnel. Although publicly there is no big fuss made around this (see article, already 98% vaccinated), I suspect this will lead to frustration and certain amount of dismissals.
• Break-up of Western societies through increased poverty immigration. Many of those which arrived in the past 10 years are looking for easy money provided by others and reject western values and ideas. Might use opportunities to loot & pillage in their host countries should they arise, will not help civilian & military defence capabilities. I suspect this was also a motive behind supporting Arab&African migration via Belarus. 

Contra

• Winter seems not yet sever enough to freeze over sufficiently to provide conditions for heavy armoury. Will also reduce Russian leverage from Nat Gas (see above).
• Ukrainian army overall seems to be in better shape then at the first Russian invasion in 2014. They are more vigilant and expecting some for of attacks.
• Ukraine population seems to reject Russian rule, especially more in Western Ukraine. There is talk about uprisings against potential Russian oppression/ partisan attacks. This is a point however I am not certain about, as its difficult to gauge such opinions and I am not particular familiar with Ukrainian sentiments.
• US Intelligence expected further build-up of troops towards January of 175k +, which apparently has not happened.

Conclusion

Currently many factors favouring Russia (COV19, Gas/energy prices) combine to create momentum we have not seen in the past and might not happen again in the future. On the other hand certain factors (winter freeze) not under the control of any party seem to be unfavourable.  Some potential players (China) I cannot factor in.

Currently I can not image a full scale war for all of Ukraine. Occupying a territory as vast as Ukraine with potentially hostile inhabitants is highly resource intense and increasingly draining over time. Also as West-Ukraine borders with Poland/Slovakia/Hungary/Romania, all of which are NATO-countries which would trigger a massive response and provide sanctuary & refuge for anti-Russian insurgents. 

 I could imagine however limited actions, increasing the eastern 'autonomous' regions which stand under Russian dominion, possibly retaliatory against anti-Russian aggression (faked or not).  

My recommendation is to be prepared for a potential situation, which is also recommended by Government bodies, such as the German agency for civil protection (BKK). I will elaborate on this in my next post.